FENIXFOREX

First, let’s start with an exponential moving average. When you want a moving average that will respond to the price action rather quickly, then a short period EMA is the best way to go. These can help you catch trends very early, which will result in higher profit. In fact, the earlier you catch a trend, the longer you can ride it and rake in those profits!
The downside to the choppy moving average is that you might get faked out. Because the moving average responds so quickly to the price, you might think a trend is forming when in actuality; it could just be a price spike.
With a simple moving average, the opposite is true. When you want a moving average that is smoother and slower to respond to price action, then a longer period SMA is the best way to go.
Although it is slow to respond to the price action, it will save you from many fake outs. The downside is that it might delay you too long, and you might miss out on a good trade.


So which one is better? It’s really up to you to decide. Many traders plot several different moving averages to give them both sides of the story. They might use a longer period simple moving average to find out what the overall trend is, and then use a shorter period exponential moving average to find a good time to enter a trade.
In fact, many trading systems are built around what is called “Moving Average Crossovers”. Later in this course, we will give you an example of how you can use moving averages as part of your trading system.

Time for recess! Go find a chart and start playing with some moving averages. Try out different types and look at different periods. In time, you will find out which moving averages work best for you. Class dismisse

Don’t spend your money on a company that promises huge returns; even if they show you their track record. It might look pretty and colorful; and I’m sure that the line on the graph that seems to keep going higher and higher makes it look like there is no way you could lose money, but don’t let them fool you. In fact, I could take my broker statement right now, touch it up with Photoshop and voila! – I have now just become the most successful trader on the planet. Pretty impressive huh? I know I’m laying it on pretty thick, but I really want to prevent you from falling into any traps. Instead of giving your hard earned money to someone else, you could put that money aside into a trading account and take the time to educate yourself.
Notice that I didn’t say you should put your money into a trading account and start trading.
Keep that money in your account and gradually add to it as you continue to learn. Before you know it, your account size will be bigger than you realized, and to top it off, you’ll have a wealth of Forex education under your “traders” belt.
So remember, Forex scams DO exist. Be wary of them and hold onto your money. The good news is that there ARE legitimate Forex companies out there. Make sure you do thorough research on a company if you are thinking about giving them a shot. Ask other traders on the forums if they've had experiences with them. There is a wealth of information on the Internet so do your homework and you’ll be just fine.

United States trade deficit

The United States has posted a trade deficit since the 1970s, and it has been rapidly increasing since 1997 . The US trade deficit hit a record high of 763.6 billion dollars in 2006, up from 716.7 billion dollars in 2005.
It is worth noting on the graph that the deficit slackened during recessions and grew during periods of expansion. Also of note, many economists calculate trade deficits and/or current account deficits as a percentage of GDP. The U.S. last had a trade surplus in 1991, a recession year. Every year there has been a major reduction in economic growth, it is followed by a reduction in the US trade deficit.

Physical balance of trade

Monetary balance of trade is different from physical balance of trade (which is expressed in amount of raw materials). Developed countries usually import a lot of primary raw materials from developing countries at low prices. Often, these materials are then converted into finished products, and a significant amount of value is added. Although for instance the EU (as well as many other developed countries) has a balanced monetary balance of trade, its physical trade balance (especially with developing countries) is negative, meaning that in terms of materials a lot more is imported than exported.

forex Strategy

Online Forex trading is a very hot trend these days, but you need to know one thing. day trading is a very good way to lose money. Why? There are many risks involve with Forex day trading and with currency exchange as a whole. The volatility of the currency trading market is very high. This is one of the most important aspects of the Fx trading world. Trillions of dollars exchange hands each day and the market goes up and down.


Are you considering day trading? This is one of the best ways to lose money as we said above. Forex day trading does not work because the data is not reliable. Also volatility is random in the online Forex trading world. Traders trade hundreds of millions of dollars each day and if you try and predict what all these people will do in this short time span you are going to have a bad time. Also your investment is not going to be good. Many of you could have seen many Forex trading systems with excellent records of gains. Of course you have seen them, but they are not telling you the truth, as we are going to explain later on.


Many people might say they have seen online Forex trading systems with great tracks records of profits. But let us tell you something. They know the closing price. The Forex broker that is telling you this does not trade with real dollars. Many times what you get is one of these things: CFTC Rule 5.61.. Simulated or hypothetical results have limitations. These results do not represent actual trading. These are not like actual performance records. Many times the results are over compensated for the impacts of the market, for example, lack of liquidity. These trading programs are designed with the benefit of hindsight. There is no guarantee that any account will achieve the losses or the profits of any of these simulated accounts.


Online Forex trading systems that make huge claims will never end up succeeding in the real trading world. Do you want to lose your money? Just join these Forex brokers. You need to trade the odds over a longer term if you want to make money here. Currency trading is a tough game even if you have reliable data. You need to know a lot about the Forex world if you want to make money here.

Inflation & forex

Oil futures surged to a record intraday high of $70.85 on August 30th, the day after Hurricane Katrina made landfall on the Gulf Coast. While prices have moderated in subsequent weeks, it's worth examining how higher commodity prices and the specter of inflation impacts the foreign exchange (FX) market, particularly the U.S. dollar.

Traditional supply and demand factors certainly have contributed to the longer term trend in energy prices. The demand side of the equation has been getting plenty of press this year, with focus on the rapidly growing thirst for oil in both China and India. However, the recent spike in oil can primarily be attributed to hurricane related speculation in the futures market and the limited and centralized (on the Gulf Coast) refining capacity of the U.S.Economic data released in recent weeks has begun to reflect the effects of hurricanes Katrina and Rita, which ravaged the U.S. Gulf Coast in August and September.

These data reinforce what the Fed has been implying all along; that the economy is growing at a brisk pace and that inflation, not recession, should be the concern.September jobs data showed the first net job losses since May of 2003, but the decline of 35,000 jobs was much smaller than the decline that was anticipated. September CPI showed the largest monthly gain in 25 years. However, when the volatile food and energy components are removed, inflation was a rather mild 0.1%. That was quite a bit less than the market was anticipating and suggests that the higher energy prices are not being passed through to the core number yet.Similarly, the September PPI headline number exceeded expectation and was the largest monthly gain in 15 years. However, again we remove food and energy and see that wholesale prices were up a relatively restrained 0.3%.

This core number did beat expectations though, so one might deduce that higher energy prices are starting to impact prices at the wholesale level and it's just a matter of time before these higher prices are passed along to consumers. Weaker than expected retail sales and a new 13 year low in Consumer Sentiment suggests that higher energy prices are indeed weighing on the American consumer's mind. How that will play out, particularly in the retail sector going into the holiday season is now a major focus on Wall Street.With the word 'inflation' seemingly on everyone's lips these days, we expect the Fed to continue on its tightening schedule.

The Fed raised the target for overnight borrowing in September by 25bp to 3.75%, the 11th such hike since June of 2004. Another rate hike is expected in October and at least one additional 25bp bump is all but assured in November or December.Rising U.S. interest rates and an expanding U.S. economy have been the driving forces behind overseas flows into U.S treasuries and the stock market respectively. These flows translate into demand for the U.S. dollar, which has kept the greenback generally well bid in September and October. While we would contend that the equities market is vulnerable at this stage, the interest rate differential picture should continue to favor the dollar through year end.High energy prices and inflation fears are not exclusive to the U.S. Central bankers and finance ministers from the Group of 20 industrial and developing nations are meeting in Beijing this month.

A statement released on October 16th said, high oil prices "could increase inflationary pressures, slow down growth and cause instability in the global economy.'' This should benefit the dollar as well because in times of global economic uncertainty, the dollar is still considered a "safe haven" currency. While we may see other countries begin to tighten their monetary policies, U.S. interest rates will remain significantly higher.The definitive move above USD-JPY 115.00 bodes well for additional dollar gains against the yen into the 118/120 zone. On the other hand, the July lows in EURUSD at 1.1868 must be convincingly negated to trigger further dollar gains against the European currency. Such a move would shift focus to the 2004 lows at 1.1759/78 initially, but potential would be for a drop below 1.1500.In times of inflationary pressures, the U.S. dollar tends to lose ground against the commodity currencies. Commodity currencies are the currencies of countries that derive the bulk of their export revenues from the sale of commodities. Prime examples of liquid commodity currencies are the Canadian dollar, Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar.The dollar hit a new 17 year low late in September against the Canadian dollar on the back of sharply higher oil and metals prices. While the dollar recovered from those lows, gains are considered corrective in nature and we look for the longer-term downtrend in USD-CAD to continue.

Similarly, AUS-USD and NZD-USD are consolidating below important resistances with scope seen for additional short to medium term gains.At some point, domestic inflation and the rise in the U.S. dollar will return focus to the U.S. trade deficit and balance of payments. As U.S. goods and services become more expensive, both domestic and overseas consumers will look elsewhere. That's the point where the U.S. stock market truly becomes vulnerable. Downside risk in the stock market will result in a negative impact on flows into the U.S. and consequently the long-term downtrend in the dollar would likely start to re-exert itself.Conventional wisdom in the financial services industry suggests that placing 5-10% of one's portfolio in alternative investments, such as those offered by CFS Capital, is desirable to achieve the diversification necessary to protect against adverse moves in the more traditional asset classes.